Everything Is Political in South Seattle: Will the August Primary Surprise Voters?

The primary election is finally, blessedly upon us. Come Aug. 5, candidates, staffers, political journalists, and people just trying to find their mail between all the candidate postcards will get a much-needed break. Until the even fiercer general election race fires up in about two weeks, that is.

But what's going to happen on primary election day? Who will win? No one can say for sure, of course, but we do have polls. They've been scarce in some of the smaller city-level races, but the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) has been staying on top of the mayoral race. Better yet, if you're a political junkie, they recently published new data on several other key races via their July "Civic Heartbeat" poll.

What does that poll tell us? Let's start with the mayor's race. The poll they commissioned confirms what anyone with eyes could tell you: It's Katie Wilson vs. Mayor Bruce Harrell. As NPI informs us, "None of the other six candidates are anywhere close to the two frontrunners."

Sorry to Ry Armstrong, Joe Mallahan, and that dude who lost to Mike McGinn. NPI's polls have been comparing Wilson to Harrell for a bit, but this new poll has plenty more to say about how the two frontrunners stand to do in the general.

"The other six candidates running received no meaningful support in the survey," NPI noted, making questions posed to respondents about their intent for the general election the highlight of the survey. Given a scenario where it's Harrell vs. Wilson, 37% of respondents went with Harrell, while 40% were for Wilson. Three percent is by no means decisive, but it's starting to look like she might actually have the juice to beat Bruce.

Moving on from the mayor's race, we've got new insight into a fairly crowded city attorney race. It does look like Ann Davison is making it through, setting up a contest of a right-wing incumbent versus any challenger. According to NPI's poll, that challenger looks to be prosecuting attorney Erika Evans, who is poised to muscle defense attorney Nathan Rouse and housing and economic justice advocate Rory O'Sullivan out of the left lane.

"Seattle voters appear to be on the verge of selecting former federal prosecutor Erika Evans," NPI wrote, noting that O'Sullivan and Rouse enjoyed only single-digit support, while Evans and Davison were both in double digits.

When it comes to the Seattle City Council, NPI sadly did not publish any data on District 2, a race that is very near and dear to our hearts. They did, however, confirm that Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck is looking good to advance to the general in District 8, where she will likely face pearl-clutcher Rachael Savage. In District 9, NPI's data again tells us what we ought to already know: It's the incumbent, Council President Sara Nelson, versus Dionne Foster, a nonprofit executive.

For Nelson, things are not looking good. NPI already reported that Nelson and City Attorney Ann Davison were increasingly unpopular with voters, and that's reflected in the latest poll. Nelson beat out Foster (27% to 22%) in an initial question about voting intent, but once voters were provided with information from the voter's guide, it flipped in favor of Foster (36% to 32%).

While Davison's race features more viable challengers, polling data display a similar dynamic. Initially, 31% of surveyed voters said they'd vote for Davison, while only 18% went for Evans, 5% went for O'Sullivan, and 2% went for Rouse. Even with the vote totals of all three progressives combined, that would be a comfortable lead for Davison. Again, after voters got a little taste of what Davison is all about via the voter's guide, her lead over Evans lessened, with both making converts from a pool of undecided voters. While Evans' share grew, so did O'Sullivan's and Rouse's, with 8% and 6% respectively. Add all those lefty lawyers' totals up, and things are looking a little dicey for Davison.

NPI's polling data really reflect the power of the "two-paper system" of endorsements. In every major city race for which NPI commissioned a poll, the candidates endorsed by the Seattle Times or The Stranger are the top two candidates. Seems safe to assume the phenomenon would hold true in D2, giving us, respectively, Seattle Department of Transportation program manager Adonis Ducksworth versus city housing lawyer Eddie Lin. Again, please check out fellow candidates Jamie Fackler and Jeanie Chunn before you check that box, if only to have done your due diligence.

Now, the dueling papers' influence does wane in the general, when right- and left-lane candidates have to fight it out on the merit of their ideas, but the papers sure do have a lot of power to say who gets to occupy those lanes in the primary.

Is that a good thing? Other writers have referred to it as something unique or quirky about the Seattle political process, but I don't have the same generosity of spirit. I think it sucks. If we're going to effectively preordain primary candidates for city office via the endorsement process, why do we even bother with a primary? Is it just to keep the consultantocracy flush with democracy voucher money? Is it fun? Do we enjoy this?

I'll stop asking questions no one really knows the answer to and just say that the primary election isn't until Tuesday, and nothing is set in stone until probably Friday. History, supported by this poll, tells us exactly who will make it to the general, but anything can happen.

As a 501(c)(3) organization, the South Seattle Emerald™ cannot endorse candidates or political campaigns.

Tobias Coughlin-Bogue is a writer, editor and restaurant worker who lives in South Park. He was formerly the associate editor of Real Change News, and his work has appeared in The Stranger, Seattle Weekly, Vice, Thrillist, Thrasher Magazine, Curbed, and Crosscut, among other outlets.