COLUMN | Despite Seattle Police Being 'Understaffed,' Crime Rates Are Decreasing. Here’s Why.

Crime rates in Seattle are dropping, and the data surrounding this drop runs counter to the narratives that have dominated Seattle media for the past five years. Consumers of news, in this city, have been fed an endless stream of fearmongering that made the case the only path toward crime reduction was more police spending and more new officers. We've been told time and time again that the Defund Movement is responsible for the fleeing of officers and the unraveling of public safety. 

But crime rates are now falling even though Seattle police staffing remains far below previous levels. Compared to last year, data from the first quarter of 2025 shows a decrease in recorded property and violent crimes, including rape, robbery, and homicide. This sets the city on track for an almost 22% reduction in similar crime categories in 2025 compared to 2024, which recorded 45,884 incidents. Violent crime alone and vehicle theft have both seen significant reductions. Homicides? Down 41%. This after years of crime rates being cited as evidence that Seattle was failing because the community had questioned our overreliance on policing and risen against the department’s violence and lack of accountability.

The Seattle Times recently acknowledged that these significant drops have occurred even though police staffing and activity remain well below pre-2019 levels. This is important, because for years, we were told that unless the city invested heavily in rebuilding police ranks, often to arbitrary or politically convenient targets, safety would remain out of reach. We were told again and again that social programs might be nice but couldn’t replace law enforcement. And yet here we are: crime falling without hitting police-staffing targets. 

While there's some encouragement in the slight shift in narrative from media outlets that helped cement those old assumptions, can we expect to see the same acknowledgment from our lawmakers? It’s not enough to simply recognize that more policing isn't the only path to safety. We have to embrace what the evidence helps illuminate: The surest way to reduce harm is by investing in people. If we want these drops in crime to continue, we need to double down on what’s working, including community-rooted, youth-centered strategies that build stability, belonging, and opportunity.

We can take our cue from Baltimore where Mayor Brandon Scott has gone to work increasing investments in youth and community, focusing on efforts like job creation, summer camps, late-night recreational spaces, youth sports, and after-school programs. The young mayor, who has faced racist attacks by people from all over the country who labeled him a "DEI mayor," has vowed to continue to "double down on evidence-based strategies, as we work to finally cure the disease of violence that has plagued our communities for far too long."

So far, this strong and holistic approach to reducing violence seems to be working. In just five years, homicides in Baltimore are down 40%, with steep drops in robberies, carjackings, and shootings.

Seattle should lean into the same approach. Especially now, with the threat of federal budget cuts that could hit sanctuary cities like ours hard, particularly in critical areas like housing and addiction recovery. We don't have the luxury of wasting funds to chase myths about what creates public safety. We must use what we know works.

The notion that community investments that provide structured activities, jobs, and volunteer opportunities that build confidence and nurture creativity can reduce crime is not empty idealism. It's what the data increasingly shows. The preventative impact of these initiatives is recognized well beyond activists, teachers, and social workers; it is echoed by academics, law enforcement professionals, and even prosecutors.

"I think there's a myriad of different things that reduce crime. Short-term goals can be accomplished through traditional means like prisons and jails. The problem we've run into is that those things aren't lasting. They're just temporary," said Washington's Attorney General Nick Brown.

Brown says that he believes that some solutions that will make crime reduction more sustainable are programs that work directly with the people.

"If you keep people engaged in their community then they're less likely to be committing crimes against their community," Brown said. "Things like after school programs, church-based programs that provide people a safe space to work and to do homework. There's a whole category of programming that's not necessarily about reducing crime, but more so saying we're here to build community, build skills. You know, like when you resolve a beef on the basketball court — learning how to deal with conflict in a way that translates to when you run into a conflict outside of the basketball court."

At El Centro de la Raza, an initiative called ELEVAR provides prevention-focused programming that teaches young people healthy ways to navigate systemic racism, stress, and anger. Research consistently shows that youth engaged in culturally grounded, supportive programs like these are less likely to enter the criminal legal system, more likely to graduate from school, and more likely to secure stable employment. These programs are among the most effective and well-equipped interventions, giving young people both practical tools and a strong support network as they prepare to face life's wide-ranging challenges.

"I don't think youth programs are getting enough investment or mainstream recognition," said Marcos Olazabal, communications and digital manager at El Centro De La Raza. Olazabal also noted that their organization is still seeing the impacts of COVID on their students and families, with youth trying to catch up socially, emotionally, and academically. "Cuts to education and social services have left even bigger gaps in the system."

In addition to having trained staff and employing best practices to support academic achievement and reduce engagement in risky behaviors, many youth programs are intentional about developing skills that directly address the disproportionate barriers young people of color face well into adulthood. El Centro de la Raza, for example, offers a range of supportive programs for its youth participants, from college visits and career exploration to educational workshops and rallies in Olympia, providing opportunities for civic engagement and empowering young people to advocate for themselves.

Olazabal noted that lawmakers and the public are often focused on reactive and punitive measures, "rather than focusing on funding programs to prevent negative outcomes and support long-term community advancement."

When I think about the dangers of overinvesting in policing while neglecting youth and community programs, I’m reminded of Frederick Douglass' words: "It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men."

Policing, as it functions in our country, is a weak attempt to fix what society neglected. At its worst, our approach to policing has proven to be violently counterproductive. It is more difficult and more expensive to try to fix broken systems and broken lives through punishment than to nurture, protect, and support children early on, giving them the resources and tools they need to thrive.

Right now, in Seattle, we have a window of possibility. The story we've been told — that safety must be bought through punitive systems and inflated police budgets — is coming apart at the seams. Let's capitalize on this opportunity to both boost the momentum of the drop-in crime rates and reframe the discussion around public safety. It can't be said enough: The safest neighborhoods aren't the ones blanketed with police, they're the ones where care and community are prioritized. And now, more clearly than ever, the evidence is on our side.

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Gennette Cordova is a writer, organizer, and social impact manager.