OPINION | Not All Student Enrollment Is Created Equal

by Hailey Karcher

In October 2023, Dunlap Elementary School in South Seattle learned that they would have to let go of two of their classroom teachers due to less-than-predicted student enrollment. This had an outsized cascading effect on many students in the school, with split grade classes created, teachers shuffled to different classrooms, and students rearranged to account for this staff reduction. These disruptions happened, of course, after the tone-setting, norm-creating month of September had already passed; students, teachers, and administrators would have to reboot, altering everyone's expectations for that year.

Dunlap wasn't the only school to experience staffing cuts. The Dunlap educators were two of many who were moved districtwide during an especially disruptive set of staffing changes at Seattle Public Schools (SPS) — particularly for elementary schools. The Seattle Times reported that over half of Seattle elementary schools were impacted by the October staffing changes. These changes have happened during a school year when SPS is preparing for a budget deficit of $131 million for the 2024—2025 school year, in part because of declining student enrollment.

Will Depusoy, a teacher at Dunlap, described his school's vulnerability to staffing changes: "When you have a high-mobility population, where people are signing one-year leases … and it's typical for a Southeast school where kids are coming and going based on gentrification. We do not have an exact Oct. 1 count [of students] that can be as reliable as neighborhoods that are predominantly home-owning, but we can get a sudden influx, like when new family apartments open."

The Central and North Seattle PTA Alliance (CANSPA) wrote a letter to the school board in response to two schools losing staffing. One of the schools was a Title 1 school and receives federal assistance due to a high percentage of students living in low-income households, while the other was able to raise $100,000 with a private fundraiser to retain a full-time teacher for that school year. The CANSPA letter highlights the inequity of how losing a teacher in some schools is final, while other, more privileged schools can plug the gap.

Analysis of student enrollment also shows another potential equity factor germane to Dunlap: the relationship between enrollment numbers and residential zoning. The school district's map of attendance areas overlapping upzoned neighborhoods — those for whom zoning regulations permit increased future development — allows for a comparison between enrollment in upzoned and single-family zoned neighborhoods. Schools in single-family neighborhoods have more empty school seats in 2023, on average, compared to their counterparts in denser neighborhoods. While other factors could influence these numbers, given Seattle's housing crisis, which makes family-sized homes unattainable for most, housing and school enrollment are inextricably connected.

As housing prices continue to rise in Seattle, neighborhoods with better access to affordable and family-sized housing may actually experience rising student enrollment. Gregory Davis, the executive director of Rainier Beach Action Coalition, indicated seven housing developments were recently completed or underway in the Rainier Beach area. Many of the mixed-income units are sized for families, so that families can move to or remain in Rainier Beach.

Depusoy cited families' commitment to a school like Dunlap that provides a familiar atmosphere for students "no matter where they're from." Housing development without displacement could allow families to stay in the neighborhood, and for schools in the neighborhood to remain fully enrolled.

Davis, an advocate of equitable development, says to address the budget deficit there needs to be a combined effort, featuring affordable housing developers, youth-centered nonprofits (which he called a "second home" for students), and even banks to finance community development. He said RBAC "stands ready" as a neutral party to assist in "building a constellation" of the area's collaborative problem solvers to address the continued, complex relationship between education and housing.

In other, less historically under-resourced areas of the city, decades of NIMBY housing policies have made many of Seattle's single-family neighborhoods inaccessible to all but the wealthiest families. As SPS considers what makes a well-resourced school, surrounding housing options will likely predict the sustainability of particular schools. Rainier Beach residents have been organizing their neighborhood as a thriving place for families — not just those at the top of the income bracket. As a result, schools in the south Rainier Valley may be poised to benefit from this community-building down the road.

The South Seattle Emerald is committed to holding space for a variety of viewpoints within our community, with the understanding that differing perspectives do not negate mutual respect amongst community members.

The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the contributors on this website do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints of the Emerald or official policies of the Emerald.

Hailey Karcher is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Washington College of Education.

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